My primary research interests are in:
  • Queueing theory, game theory and simulation methods
  • Mathematical modelling of healthcare systems
  • Mathematical modelling for the prevention, early detection and treatment of diseases
  • Data mining techniques
Healthcare systems are typically characterised by complexity, variability, uncertainty and use of scarce resources. To model such systems requires the development of suitable mathematical and simulation models that are able to account for the stochastic conditions, complex and large-scale patient pathways and disease processes, and at both operational and strategic levels. Various novel approaches have been developed by myself and colleagues at Cardiff (and with collaborators worldwide), including those in hybrid simulation methodologies, queueing and game theoretic models, location theory and optimisation, social network models for disease propagation, and health behavioural models.

Funding has come from many different sources to support my research and translational findings, including the Department of Health, NHS Wales, Welsh Government, Health Foundation, NHS Information Centre, NHS Trusts and Primary Care Trusts, as well as from the main funding councils such as EPSRC and ESRC.

I was delighted to establish a mathematical modelling unit in collaboration with the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board. Four post-doctoral research associates and a lecturer in OR have been funded by ABUHB and they work between the University and Health Board. In addition Cardiff and Vale University Health Board regularly fund both PhDs and post-docs (currently one PhD student and a three-year research associate funded post).   In 2015 we won a University Innovation award for our research and impact, and a prestigious Times Higher Education award for ‘Outstanding Contribution to Innovation and Technology'.

My research, and that with many collaborators, has led to sustained impact of significant benefit to the NHS and patient care, resulting in increased efficiency and effectiveness of healthcare systems, and improved outcomes. Projects have included reducing waiting times, reducing elective patient cancellations, ambulance modelling (forecasting demand, location analysis, crew rostering), finding the most effective and equitable locations on for healthcare facilities, advising on the cost-effectiveness of strategies for preventing and screening for disease such as informing policy on cancer, HIV/AIDS and Chlamydia screening.

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